The fall of Assyria’s Assad regime has had rippling repercussions throughout the Middle East. Russia has felt the seismic tremors as it has bases in Syria. Russian forces were invited by Assad to help Syria tackle ISIS and the motley bands of rebel forces that joined its ranks to overthrow Syria’s government in 2011. Russia signed a 49 year lease with Syria for use of the bases in 2017.  This gave Russia a Mediterranean naval base for supply and repair.

The fall of Assad has put these bases in jeopardy, as the rebel forces that overran the country were the ones Russia was jointly combatting with Syria. The rebel forces stopped short of the Russian bases, leaving Russian troops room to retreat to the safety of their bases.

During a year-end-review press conference that lasted two hours, Putin responded to questions about Syria.

We came to Syria ten years ago to prevent the creation of a terrorist enclave there, like the one that we saw in some other countries, for example, Afghanistan. We have achieved that goal, by and large.

Next, we did not deploy any ground forces in Syria; they simply were not present there. Our presence consisted solely of two bases: an air base and a naval base. The ground operations were conducted by the Syrian armed forces and, as is widely known, there is no secret here, certain pro-Iranian combat units. At one point, we even withdrew our special operations forces from the area. We were not engaged in combat there.

So, what transpired? When armed opposition groups advanced towards Aleppo, the city was defended by approximately 30,000 personnel. However, when 350 militants entered the city, the government forces, along with the pro-Iranian units, withdrew without resistance, demolishing their positions as they left. This pattern was observed across nearly the entire Syrian territory, with only minor exceptions where skirmishes occurred. In the past, our Iranian friends requested assistance to move their units into Syria; now they have asked us to help withdraw them. We facilitated the relocation of 4,000 Iranian fighters to Tehran from the Khmeimim air base. Some pro-Iranian units withdrew to Lebanon, others to Iraq, without engaging in combat.

The current situation in the Syrian Arab Republic remains challenging. We sincerely hope for peace and stability to be restored. We maintain dialogue with all groups controlling the situation there and with all regional countries. An overwhelming majority of them have expressed interest in retaining our military bases in Syria.

What is fascinating is where the Russian forces and equipment that are being withdrawn are headed – and it isn’t back to Russia. Frances media outlet “24” reported the following on December 20^th:

By the end of the week, air traffic between Syria and Libya had increased. Russia was withdrawing significant amounts of military assets from Syria, primarily from its Khmeimim airbase in Latakia, and transporting them to Libya, according to several news reports.

With Assad’s sudden fall, Russia was scrambling to manage its considerable military facilities and personnel in Syria. 

More than a week after Assad’s ouster, in a critical development, the Syria-Libya traffic had expanded to the sea. 

Russia had begun moving naval assets on the Mediterranean from the Syrian port city of Tartus to Libya, according to US news reports.

The sudden collapse of the Assad regime in Syria has notched up the geostrategic scramble, sending ripples thousands of miles across the Mediterranean Sea, a vital maritime zone connecting the Middle East, Europe and Africa.

The article went on to describe the geo-political strategic importance of Russia’s bases in the Mediterranean:

Russia has a critical naval facility in the Syrian port city of Tartus, which houses elements of the Black Sea Fleet and is Moscow’s only repair and replenishment hub in the Mediterranean. 

Established by the Soviet Union in the 1970s, the Tartus naval base was expanded and modernised by Russia after the 2011 anti-Assad uprising, when President Vladimir Putin used military might to back his Syrian ally.

Russia’s reward came in January 2017, when it signed a free-of-charge 49-year lease with Syria, granting Moscow sovereignty over the Tartus naval base. The lease could be automatically extended for further 25-year periods if neither side objects.

While HTS-led rebels now controlling Syria have allowed Russia to withdraw its military assets so far, the future of Moscow’s permanent naval presence in the Mediterranean is far from certain. 

The crown jewel of Russian foreign policy in Syria was not necessarily Assad. It was the military bases that they held there, that enabled power projection in the Mediterranean.

With Assad’s fall, the focus has now shifted to Libya’s 1,700km Mediterranean coastline, of which the eastern chunk is controlled by Haftar’s armed coalition. 

The Biblical Significance of these Events

As Bible students this is significant. First, the need for a Russian naval presence is dictated in the scriptures. When the King of the North comes down it is described as coming with “many ships”:

“And at the time of the end shall the king of the south push at him: and the king of the north shall come against him like a whirlwind, with chariots, and with horsemen, and with many ships; and he shall enter into the countries, and shall overflow and pass over.” (Daniel 11:40)

The fact Russia is determined to maintain a naval presence in the Mediterranean is in keeping with this directive.

Second, the shift to Libya is also significant. When the invasion which takes place at the “time of the end” occurs – Libya is identified by both Daniel and Ezekiel as being a participant. The prophet Daniel tells us:

“…the Libyans and the Ethiopians shall be at his steps.” (Daniel 11:43)

This is translated by the ESV as:

“… and the Libyans and the Cushites shall follow in his train.” (Daniel 11:43)

Ezekiel, likewise, includes the Libyans in the fray:

“And I will turn thee back, and put hooks into thy jaws, and I will bring thee forth, and all thine army, horses and horsemen, all of them clothed with all sorts of armour, even a great company with bucklers and shields, all of them handling swords: Persia, Ethiopia, and Libya with them; all of them with shield and helmet:” (Ezekiel 38:4–5)

Russia has long been courting Libya, and lost a valuable ally when Gaddafi was deposed. Libyan strongman Khalifa Haftar, head of the Libyan National Army (LNA) has been wooed by Russia since he began his attack on the western propped-up-government based in Tripoli, in western Libya in 2019. It was Russia Wanger forces under Yevgeny Prigozhin - that were key in helping Haftar. After Prigzhin that was killed in a plane crash, Russia’s Deputy Defence Minister Yunus-bek Yevkurov has been running Russia’s show in Libya.

In an earlier 2003 article, France’s 24 had stated the following:

“The Russians have requested access to the ports of either Benghazi or Tobruk,” the US daily reported, citing Libyan officials and advisers. Yevkurov’s meeting with Haftar in August focused on discussing “long-term docking rights in areas he controls in the war-torn country’s east,” the newspaper added.

“It’s about securing a warm water port on the Mediterranean, at Europe and NATO’s southern flank, which has been a covert objective of Russia for quite a long time, but on which it hadn’t made inroads, partly because its presence in Libya was never made fully official, let’s say. This is slightly changing now, given the increased high profile, and nature of the visits that we’ve seen with the deputy minister of defence,” said Emad Badi, non-resident senior fellow at the Washington DC-based Atlantic Council.

With the fall of Syria, this objective has been fast-tracked, and Russian forces and equipment are pouring into Libya by air and sea. The same 2023 article ended with this statement:

“Russia is moving things into Libya because Libya is already an established hub for them. It's a rational move by Russia, not an escalatory one,” said Megerisi. MEG-ER-IS-I “It's probably worse news for the conflicts that are ongoing in places like Sudan, Niger, Mali, because a lot of the equipment that comes to Libya ends up going to other theaters where there is active combat. So we might see an escalation in those regions in the future.”

This is also interesting as Sudan is one of the countries that is part of the same confederacy that comes into the land with Russia in the latter days. Sudan was the ancient empire of Cush which is named in Ezekiel 38 in the ESV:

“Persia (Iran), Cush, and Put (Libya) are with them, all of them with shield and helmet;” (Ezekiel 38:5)

The fact that the Russian escalation is going to affect Sudan is significant. Russia, as we reported earlier in the year, has also renewed its plans of putting in a port on the Red Sea located in Sudan. The shakeup is Syria is pushing into place in the other countries mentioned in Ezekiel.

Many Countries Shall

When you dissect the invasion described in Daniel it is telling:

“And at the time of the end shall the king of the south push at him: and the king of the north shall come against him like a whirlwind, with chariots, and with horsemen, and with many ships; and he shall enter into the countries, and shall overflow and pass over. He shall enter also into the glorious land, and many countries shall be overthrown: but these shall escape out of his hand, even Edom, and Moab, and the chief of the children of Ammon. He shall stretch forth his hand also upon the countries: and the land of Egypt shall not escape. But he shall have power over the treasures of gold and of silver, and over all the precious things of Egypt: and the Libyans and the Ethiopians shall be at his steps.” (Daniel 11:40–43)

There is a logical flow to this. Russia first enters Türkiye, the “him” that was the target of the British push back in 1917, which saw the Ottoman Empire dried up from the holy land. This has been the ambition of Russia for decades, to retake Hagia Sophia, its “Vatican” and restore Christianity to the Church that is currently serving as Mosque.

From here he enters into the “countries” by “overflowing and passing over”.

Following this he enters the “glorious holy land”, but the area of Edom, Moab and Ammon (or Jordan) escapes.  He follows on down into Egypt.

Looking at a map of the Middle East, we ask the question what stands between Türkiye (the him of Daniel 11:40) and “glorious holy land” – excluding Jordan as it escapes?  The answer is Syria and Lebanon – these are the two countries sandwiched in-between. So from all intents and purposes they become targets in this latter day campaign, indicating they cannot be fully under Russian control until then. Russia may leave some forces in Syria, negotiating with the Rebels to do so, but the eventual destiny of Syria is to be in the path of the Russian invasion of the Middle East on the way to Armageddon.

We watch with excitement as we see events progressing and bringing us closer to the Lord’s return. As we watch, we must also be as men that wait as the Lord instructs us in Luke’s Gospel:

“Let your loins be girded about, and your lights burning; And ye yourselves like unto men that wait for their lord, when he will return from the wedding; that when he cometh and knocketh, they may open unto him immediately. Blessed are those servants, whom the lord when he cometh shall find watching: verily I say unto you, that he shall gird himself, and make them to sit down to meat, and will come forth and serve them.” (Luke 12:35–37)

For the Bible in the News, this has been Jonathan Bowen joining you.