The military options Iran have are broadly seen to have are these:

1. Ballistic missile strikes on U.S forces and allies in the region. This could be missile attacks on Israel, similar to what we saw last June during the 12 day war and the attack on the Al Udeid Air base, but likely on a much larger scale.

2. Attacks by their proxies on U.S interests. While their proxies are but a shadow of their former selves, the Houthis could cause some disruption in the Red Sea. They could also activate so-called ‘sleeper cells’ that are rumoured to exist in the west. 

3. Disrupting shipping, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz. In the 1980s Iran attempted to mine the strait. They could attempt to do this again. Between 20-30% of the world’s oil passes through the strait and so would cause a substantial spike in oil price.

4. They could attack gulf energy infrastructure, again causing a spike in oil prices worldwide.

Based on the equipment the U.S is sending to the region, they appear to be seriously preparing for each of these responses. According to CNN the US has deployed various air defence systems including both Patriot missile systems that appeared at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, and also the THAAD system. These could be used to protect U.S forces and bases in the region, their allies and also the energy infrastructure in the gulf.  

In Bahrain there are three combat ships stationed, capable minesweeping which could be used to reopen the straits should Iran mine them.

The U.S clearly wants to be prepared, should Iran throw everything they have at them. 

For offensive action, alongside the Abraham Lincoln Carrier, the U.S has brought in guided-missile ships and is believed to be accompanied by Tomahawk carrying submarines. Also an E-11A jet used for coordinating large and complex operations arrived at al-Udeid, which wouldn’t be required for a limited strike like Operation Midnight Hammer from last June. Variants of RC-135 reconnaissance planes which are capable of detecting radioactive debris, which could be needed should nuclear sites be attacked in Iran. F-35 5th generation fighters have been crossing the Atlantic, being spotted in Portugal, again likely on their way to the Middle East as well, along with in air refuelers. Transport planes have been making continual deliveries to the region with cargos unknown. All of this is just the build up we know about, there is likely even more going on behind the scenes. 

The question in everybody’s minds is whether this is just a context Donald Trump wants in preparation for serious negotiations with Iran, or whether the U.S. is about to launch a major attack on the Iranian government. 

So how did we get here? Well since the Iranian Revolution in 1979 Iran and the United States have been arch enemies. This began with the hostage crisis in 1979 when 52 Americans from the US embassy were held hostage for 444 days. The U.S. then backed Iraq against Iran in the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s. Since then, Iran has been responsible for supporting terrorist organisations and more recently their nuclear and missile programs and “access of resistance” - building a number of proxy forces surrounding Israel in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Gaza. 

Prior to October 7th 2023 Iran indirectly controlled the largest non governmental army in the world, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Syrian government, proxies in Iraq, the Houthi’s who ruled most of Yemen, and also Hamas which controlled the Gaza strip. 

The U.S has many scores to settle with Iran, but particularly with the threat posed by it’s proxy network, there hasn’t ever been a time when it would be easy to do so. 

Iran’s actions have posed an even more acute threat to Israel. It is difficult to appreciate how much Iran’s government is focused on the destruction of Israel. It is difficult to overstate this. Iran has repeatedly stated their aim to “wipe Israel off the map” going back decades. They have sponsored many conferences promoting a “World without Zionism”, and also conferences to promote Holocaust denial. In 2107 a digital clock was unveiled in Palestine Square, called the Palestine Square Countdown Clock, programmed to count down 8,411 days - reinforcing Ali Khamenei's 2015 statement that “Israel will not exist in 25 years”. The clock ominously ticks down to September 2040, Iran’s target date for the destruction of the Jewish State. Iran hasn’t limited this aim to rhetoric either. Iran’s proxy network surrounded Israel with missiles. Hezbollah alone was estimated to have up to 120,000 missiles targeting Israel, with Hamas and the Houthis having many more - for years having the potential to rain down on Israeli population centres - and of course the much more existential threat of Iran’s nuclear program, which if completed could indeed “wipe Israel off the map”.

 The Iranian threat with their obsession with the destruction of Israel, backed with their proxies and their nuclear program, made the idea of peace in Israel an impossibility. This was the situation prior to October 7th 2023. 

It is generally believed that the attack that surprised Israel on that day, took Iran by surprise as well. Iran had been planning a coordinated attack on Israel with its proxies but it is believed that for some reason Sinwar made the decision to launch Hamas’ part of the attack alone. It may be that he was frustrated by Iran’s timeline and believed they would be forced to join in should they attack Israel alone. This, however, is not what happened. Despite Israel being caught by surprise and humiliated in the first days of the war, only token attacks were made by Hezbollah and the Houthis, with Iran not getting involved at all. Iran and each of the proxies was given the choice of joining a war they were not yet prepared for, or watch helplessly as Hamas was destroyed by Israel - which is what they ended up doing. This then continued with the destruction of Hezbollah in September 2024, when again the same calculation had to be made. Again Iran decided to sit on the side-lines, rather than risk a war with Israel. Then again with the Houthis, they too were crippled without Iran firing as much as a shot. Only when Iran was directly attacked did they engage militarily with Israel - once in April 2024 and again in October 2024. 

By the time Trump came to power in January 2025 Iran no longer had any proxies that offered it any real defence at all. 

In June 2025 Israel attacked Iran, destroying its air force and air defences. Within hours Israel had full control of the skies over Iran, flying mission after mission against targets throughout the country including Tehran without losing a single manned aircraft, and having just three unmanned drones shot down during the entire conflict. Should Israel have launched such an attack anytime before October 7th, Israel would have immediately been under attack by the entire proxy network simultaneously.

Israel humiliated Iran’s government, and set their nuclear program back.

The fallout of the war within Iran was a loss of respect in the eyes of their own people, many of them seeing for themselves the futility of the #1 aim of the government (the destruction of Israel), and also a further weakening of the economy. American sanctions have crippled the economy of Iran for decades, with the situation worsening since Trump first came into office in 2017. Inflation has been chronic since then, at around 30%. In 2025 the inflation rate spiked further with a collapse of the Iranian Rial on currency markets. In 2017 you could get 60,000 Rials to the dollar, by 2024 it was 767,000 and by the end of 2025 1.4 million. It is still dropping and currently trading at around 1.5 million to the USD.

Iran also has an acute water crisis. Iran has been in a continual drought for six years, with Iran experiencing the lowest rainfall in 50 years. Iran has supplied much of its water demand by exploiting aquifers, which after having been over used for many years are now running dry. The groundwater level in some wells are now more than 100 metres below historical levels. In the 1960s Iran water supply per person was around 4,500 cubic meters per year. Now it is just 1200 cubic meters, well below the water scarcity threshold of 1,700 cubic meters per year.

Cities like Tehran face severe rationing, often cutting sections of the city off from supply in rotation. The Iranian government has publicly warned that Tehran may need to be evacuated if the drought doesn’t end this winter because the city’s water supply could literally run out. 

It’s not just drinking water that is a problem, but it also makes agriculture almost impossible. Farmers are unable to properly water their crops leading to much lower yields at harvest. 

Over the last few years Iran is handling four distinct crises all at the same time. 

1. The loss of all their proxies

2. A humiliating war with Israel

3. A collapse of their currency and economy

4. An acute water crisis

And in the last few weeks a new crisis has appeared, which is a product of the other crises - a political crisis. First it started with the market traders in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar, and then spread throughout the country. Protests and riots throughout the country, calling for the end of the regime. The humiliation of the regime, along with the economic hardship lead to a loss of respect and fear in Iranians throughout the country and many took to the streets.

It took the regime imposing a near-total internet blackout, and reported massacres to end the unrest. The number who were killed in the crackdown is disputed but even conservative estimates reach into the 1,000s, with some claiming as many as 30,000 people were killed. The sheer number shows how determined the protesters were, as it seems likely that they must have continued to come out despite seeing their fellow protestors mown down by gunfire.

The Iranian regime at least appears to be on the brink of collapse. 

And so we come back to the U.S. build up in the region. Since 1979 there hasn’t been a period as tempting as now for the United States to attempt to topple the regime. From the outside it looks like it would take just one more push and that would be the final straw. The reality may be different.

We do not know whether President Trump, emboldened by success in Venezuela, will attempt to give the regime the final push, and we do not know whether if he does it will cause it to topple. What we do know is that Iran is in a crisis, and the current situation is not sustainable. Something has to give. 

What we know from Bible prophecy is that at the end times Israel will continue to exist and will be at peace. As Bible believers we could be confident that Iran’s 2040 target to destroy Israel would fail. Israel is described as “dwelling safely all of them”. Not some of them, not those in Tel Aviv, but all of them - and it even singles out the “mountains of Israel” / the West Bank as being an area where the God’s people will be dwelling safely. They are described as a “land of unwalled villages”, “at rest”, “that dwell safely”, and “having neither bars nor gates”

This situation simply could not come about while the political will to destroy Israel was so firm in Tehran, and the proxy network was intact. It could not come about with a nuclear Iran holding onto the obsession to destroy Israel.

Israel can not live in peace and safely, without bars and gates while groups like Hamas and Hezbollah are funded specifically to attack and equipped by Iran to commit October 7th scale attacks on their communities.

And so as Bible believers the events over the last few years have not changed in relation to Iran. There must be dramatic change in Iran for the peace described in Ezekiel 38 to come about. 

While this is said, we do not expect Iran to become an ally of Israel either. The Shah of Iran was a great friend of Israel, and when he fell in 1979 Iran turned from being an ally to an enemy. His son, who some believe might take over should the current regime fall, promises to become a friend of Israel again. Should this happen it will be short lived, because we know from Ezekiel 38 that Iran (Persia), is one of the nations that comes against Israel in the Gogian confederacy. We see that at the time of the end Iran is hostile to Israel, but is not a threat to Israel by itself. Destroying Israel is no longer the government's primary goal, but Iran is instead a small part of an attacking force. As Bible believers we should expect to see ‘de-fanged’ Iran, not an allied Iran.

Whether America is about to attack Iran, we do not know. It may be that the weak position Iran finds itself eventually motivates it to abandon the obsession with destroying Israel and focus on internal matters and they make a deal with America. We do not know the means, we only know the end; Israel will be at peace, without feeling threatened near or far. The tragedy is, that when they cry “peace and safety!”, the land will only enjoy that quietness for a short time, for that force will come into the land, to be pled with by God. While we see these things happening in the world we are comforted that these events herald a time of true peace and safety, when the Messiah of Israel, finally accepted by God’s people, rules in peace from the city of peace, Jerusalem.