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The New Middle East: Pax Israelica?
Has Israel become the superpower of the Middle East?
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Monday, July 21, 2025
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Less than two years later, that landscape is unrecognisable. Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, Iraq’s militias, and Assad’s Syria have either severed ties with Iran, been severely degraded, or ceased to pose serious threats. Iran itself endured a humiliating twelve-day war that crippled its air defences, damaged its nuclear infrastructure, and exposed its vulnerability to Israeli military supremacy. Despite years of anti-Israel rhetoric, when the confrontation came, Tehran’s fury proved futile.
This dramatic reversal has led some to dub the new era “Pax Israelica,” or as Le Monde’s Gilles Paris styled it, “Pax Hebraica.” A “Pax,” as defined by Merriam-Webster, is “a period of general stability in international affairs under the influence of a dominant military power.” Like Pax Romana or Pax Americana, it marks an era where one power’s dominance enforces regional peace.
Paris wrote that in mere months, Israel has become “the sheriff of the Middle East.” He described Israel’s bombings as “a final epitaph to the blindness of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar,” who, in his miscalculation, dismantled the entire “axis of resistance” carefully cultivated by Iran over decades.
The October 7th war elevated Israel from a marginalised presence to a respected regional superpower. That does not mean every neighbouring nation suddenly embraces Israel, but it does suggest a shift in geopolitical calculus. Opposing Israel now appears self-defeating, while cooperation might enhance national interests and global influence. The prospect of Syria joining the Abraham Accords, once laughable, is now a subject of serious discussion. As for Saudi Arabia, its accession to the Accords feels less like an "if" and more like a "when."
Recent events in southern Syria underscore this new reality. Following internal clashes involving the Druze community, Israel intervened militarily to stabilise the region. Syria responded not with defiance, but with negotiation. Reuters reported that Israel had agreed with the Syrian government to allow Syrian troops into Sweida for 48 hours to quell the unrest. The notion of Israel dictating military deployment within sovereign Syrian territory would have been unthinkable in decades past. That kind of influence, commanding terms over another state's internal affairs, is the hallmark of a superpower. For comparison, it echoes the United States’ sway over Ukrainian wartime decisions.
If indeed we are witnessing the emergence of a Pax Israelica, then Israel is not just surviving, but imposing peace, a long-anticipated development for Bible students. The modern rebirth of Israel in 1948 and its capture of Jerusalem in 1967 fulfilled prophecy, but lasting peace always seemed elusive. Ezekiel 38 speaks of Israel as “a land of unwalled villages... dwelling safely.” That has never yet described Israel.
For decades, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has served as a convenient tool for regional powers. Palestinians remain uniquely designated as perpetual refugees, unable to assimilate, their plight prolonged by external actors who simultaneously fuel and exploit the conflict. It stands to reason that those who sustained it could also dismantle it, if political will aligns.
In a wholly different context, Lenin observed, “There are decades where nothing happens, and weeks where decades happen.” That sentiment fits the velocity of change in the Middle East today. We may be witnessing the unfolding of an era once thought inconceivable, a Pax Israelica where Israel not only secures peace but embodies regional leadership.
A recent Jerusalem Post headline declared, “Israelis now safer than at any other time in a generation.” And so we recall the biblical warning, perhaps first spoken of AD 70 but echoed today: “When they shall say, Peace and safety; then sudden destruction cometh upon them... Therefore let us not sleep, as do others, but let us watch and be sober.”