Within a few weeks, the Ukrainian cause seemed more hopeful. First, they prevented the widely anticipated quick Russian victory, by protecting Kyiv from the Russian thrust from Belarus, then managed to stabilize the other fronts, and even regained a large amount of territory in Kharkiv at the tail end of 2022. The West went into 2023 with optimism, optimism reaching to talk of completely expelling the Russian forces from Ukraine, even retaking Crimea. However, these hopes would prove terribly naive as the 2023 Ukraine offensive being bogged down by the impressive Russian defences which they had built, and had time to perfect due to the delay to the offensive. The battles had echoes of the Battle of the Somme, costing Ukraine huge numbers of casualties in manpower and equipment in exchange for tiny amounts of territory recaptured. Since this time the war has resulted in an extremely slow but continual loss of Ukrainian territory as the Russian Army has moved forward inch by inch. Ukraine would need much more support for much longer, if the West was going to prevent a Ukrainian defeat.

During the war Russia had transformed its economy into a war economy. The West had not. Promises on armament production and delivery were made, and then broken.  During the winter of 2023-2024 this left Ukraine able to fire only one shell for every eight Russia could, although this has since improved somewhat. Supplying Ukraine didn’t come free, and Europe showed that they were unwilling to make the hard sacrifices to living standards, which putting their economies on a war footing would cost. Italy alone has a larger GDP than Russia, yet the entire 20 trillion dollar economy of the EU failed to come anywhere near matching the arms production of the just 2 trillion dollar Russian economy. 

Last month Donald Trump returned as president of the United States with the promise of “ending the war on day one”. While this hasn’t happened, the mood regarding Ukraine has drastically changed. It is generally accepted in the west that the war needs to end. It is generally accepted that Ukraine has lost territory, and is unlikely to ever get it back. The question now is on what terms it ends.

Last week representatives from the U.S. and Russia met in Saudi Arabia for their first round of talks. Notably, Ukraine, nor any other European power were invited. This sent a clear message that the U.S. had the power to make the deal alone. In Trump’s first term he argued that European nations needed to step up when in came to defence, not only with their defence budgets, but also with their economic links. In 2018, Trump challenged Angela Merkel on German increasing reliance on Russian oil and gas. In the same meeting he criticized Germany for only spending just over 1% of their GDP on defence, while the U.S. spent 4.2%. These warnings went unheeded in 2018, and in 2024 Trump is clearly ensuring they feel the pain of their militarily feeble position. Europe’s economies are able to support a formidable army, but since World War Two has relied almost entirely on the United States for defence. Trump’s message is clear: If we pay for your defence, you don’t get to sit at the table.

We will have to see how this policy works out. It may be that the pressure Trump brings to bear on Europe is successful in forcing them to create a defence force capable of keeping Russia at bay. On the other hand, it may be that this policy fails. Trump would either have to U turn, or Russia would become the dominant force on the continent. Even if peace is secured, Russia could become the feared power in Europe.

Whichever of these two scenarios comes to be, it is of great interest to us as Bible students. The defence pact of Nato is completely inconsistent with Bible prophecy and must come to an end before the events of Ezekiel 38 come to pass. This is because we see that at the time of Armageddon, the European nations, as well as Turkey, are under Russian influence and not allied with the Tarshish power (Britain) or her Young Lions (the political descendants of Britain, including the U.S). We also expect to see a great European army as part of the Gogian confederacy coming down upon the mountains of Israel.

We see the human tragedy of war, and we see injustice throughout the kingdoms of men. But as Bible believers, we also know that this will only end when Christ rules from Jerusalem in righteousness and peace. And so while we are saddened to see the injustice in the world, we are comforted that these things herold the time when these things will come to and end, when war will be no more. 

Join us again next week for another edition of Bible in the News.