As the rebel forces establish their hold on power in Damascus, the world waits with bated breath to see what the next few months will bring for this embattled, suffering country in the middle-east. This week, Israel have been heroically performing the dirty work that the world needs in ensuring that weapons (including chemical weapons) do not fall into the hands of radical Islamic fundamentalists. The crescent of the Islamic Shia terror from Iran to Syria to Hezbollah has been devastated). The Middle East is fundamentally changing - this has all followed the brutal  attack of October 7th. There is no doubt that we are living in exciting times! But firstly, how did we get to the situation found in Syria today?

The History of Syria

After the Ottoman Empire dried up to its roots in Turkey during the first world war, the Sykes-Picot agreement determined how the territory of the former Ottoman empire would be partitioned.

Map of the Sykes-Picot agreement made during WW1

This agreement has had far-reaching implications for the middle east - even in the 21st century. The Sykes-Picot agreement was a secret treaty in 1916 between the UK and France with assent from Russia and Italy. This agreement was the basis of San Remo conference in 1920, where the French were given a mandate for Syria and Lebanon that lasted until 1946. In 1946, Syria gained its independence. The Assad regime began in 1970, when General Hafez Al-Assad seized power becoming the president. After he died in 2000, his son, Bashar al-Assad took over as president of Syria. 

During the Arab spring in 2011, an uprising in Syria resulted in a civil war that has lasted for over a decade and eventually toppled the Assad regime in the last two weeks. There are a milestones during this civil war period that are important for understanding the situation in Syria today:

• 2011 - Civil war broke out: Rebellion against the Assad regime. 
• Russia and Iran increased their support for Assad, gaining influence in the region. 
• 2012 - the rebels gained control of Aleppo (Syria’s second biggest city after Damascus). Obama famously came up with his red line - if Assad used chemical weapons, then this would be the final straw. America would closely support the rebels against Assad. 
• 2013 - Assad uses chemical weapons and the west, under Obama did nothing. 
• It was around this time that Al Baghdadi set up the Islamic state in Iraq. Eastern Syria and Western Iraq ended up in the hands of ISIS. 
• 2015 - Russia and Iran step up involvement in Syria and level Aleppo to the ground. 
• In 2016-2017 Donald Trump and the Kurds strike ISIS and reduce them to a few inconsequential concentrations of forces. It was at this moment that Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) emerged from ISIS and other jihadi factions. The leader of this rebel force is called Al-Jolani: A rebel who has risen to prominence throughout the world in the last few weeks. He name means ‘from the Golan’ and he has deep family ties to the Golan Heights, an area in the north of Israel. 
• 2018 - a buffer was created between HTS and the Assad regime. The territory controlled by HTS has shrunken continually, up until the last few weeks, when the tables have turned. 

The reason everything dramatically changed so suddenly, was due to things outside of Assad’s control. Assad was being propped up by outside forces - namely, Russia and Iran. While Russia has been busy in Ukraine, and Iran has been busy fighting Israel both directly and through Hezbollah, the Assad regime became an empty shell - there simply were not enough resources to keep Assad in power. It was this that allowed HTS, under the leadership of Al-Jolani to take control of Damascus and topple the Assad regime. 

Another Iranian proxy hits the dust

While the Assad regime was cautious in their stance towards Israel, it is certainly true that they were another proxy of Iran - held up in part by Iranian support. Syria had vital geo-strategic significance in ferrying weapons from Iran to Hezbollah.  For example, it was reported in the Wall Street Journal today (15th December) that Hezbollah says the fall of Assad severed key supply lines from Iran. Similarly, an article from Chatham House said that “the fall of Assad has exposed the extent of the damage to Iran’s axis of resistance”. Everything in the Middle East has changed. This is a different world, when compared to pre-October 7th. An Iranian proxy, Hamas, brutally attacked the Jewish people on October 7th. And now, 1 year and 2 months later, Hamas is devastated, Hezbollah is has been destroyed as a significant threat to Israe,l and the Assad regime has fallen.

Sinwar is gone, Nasrallah is gone! Hezbollah has no command structure. Who knows what’s left of the Hamas structure - certainly not much. A comprehensive Israeli air and ground campaign in Gaza and the north has shown Netanyahu’s determination to defeat Israel’s enemies. Everything has changed! While it is impossible to see how all the chips will fall, we should certainly be excited about the possibility of peace and safety for Israel as Ezekiel 38 prophecies - this may not be far away! The whole front of Shia terror has been destroyed. While chaos will likely remain in Syria, with Jihadi extremists taking over, if this can be contained by Israel to its north, the chaos may not pose much of a threat to Israel.  

What’s happened to Russian forces in Syria? 

Since Obama’s failure to enforce his ‘red-line’ in 2013, the Russians became deeply involved in the Assad regime. They have supported with direct military aid and involvement since 2015. This increased their influence in the Middle East and crucially gave them military bases in Syria, including the naval facility in Tartus. The Telegraph reported yesterday that Russia are “not leaving” the two main military bases in Syria. Only time will tell the truth of this statement since everything is still in a state of flux. 
Currently, most news outlets are reporting a withdrawal of Russian forces, but suggesting they will still remain inside Syria. For example, Reuters reported that Russia is “pulling back but not out of Syria”. However NBC reported the dismantling and packing up of Russian equipment at key military bases in Syria. The BBC reported that Russian ships have moved off the Syria base amid doubts over future. Perhaps there are several parallels to be drawn with America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan. However, it remains unclear as to whether Russia will leave Syria completely. It seems somewhat doubtful that they will leave the naval base in Tartus. Reuters reported that Assad’s move to Russia could be part of a wider deal made with the rebels on military bases. 

Israel does the world’s dirty work (again!)

This week, Israel have launched hundreds of strikes on Syria - they have struck military sites, underground missile bunkers, rocket depots buried deep into the mountains, chemical weapons sites, air defenses, navy targets and much more according to the Times of Israel. The IDF’s strategy appears to be about stopping Assad’s weaponry falling into the hands of the rebels.

The IDF have advanced into Syria, taken the Hermon range, and are currently situated closer to Damascus than they were during the Yom Kippur war in 1973. The last thing that the West could possibly want is fundamentalist Jihadis like Al-Jolani in control of chemical and other such weapons. You can bet that every western leader will be secretly thanking Israel for their work in Syria to deplete the Rebels’ military capabilities. Once again, Israel is doing the world’s dirty work for them. In 2007, the Assad regime started building nuclear weapons - in Operation Orchard, Israel took out this nuclear capability. Imagine how worried the world would be if fundamentalist Jiahdis now had access to nuclear weapons. Israel has done the world huge favours on so many levels - the only reason for the world’s hostility towards them is pure antisemitism. 

Will Israel annex more territory in the north?

While the world is still busy castigating the Jewish people, for any and every reason under the sun, there have been reports that a Syrian Druze village is calling to be annexed by Israel. The times of Israel reports: “An unverified video circulating on social media purports to show a member of the Druze community in the southern Syrian village of Hader calling for the community to be annexed to the Israeli side of the Golan Heights. If we have to choose, we will choose the lesser evil,” he says. “And even if it’s considered evil to ask to be annexed to the [Israeli] Golan, it’s a much lesser evil than the evil coming our way.” Along similar lines, the JPost reported an interview with a Kurdish political activist from Syria saying “we need Israel’s political backing”.  There are communities in the Middle East who see Israel as the only way to peaceful and prosperous existence. This could be part of the thawing of attitudes towards the Jewish people in the Middle East that could lead to peace. 

What does this mean for Bible Prophecy?

This is an exceptionally exciting moment for any who are interested in Bible Prophecy in the latter days. Based on Ezekiel 38:11-12,14, we expect to see a situation of Israel dwelling at peace, without bars or gates. While this situation is not apparent in Israel at the moment, the destruction of the Iranian proxies in the region means that suddenly peace is looking more plausible. Hezbollah is ruined. Hamas is ruined. Assad has fallen. Iran is weakened. Donald Trump is about to resume the reigns of power in the Whitehouse and no doubt redouble his efforts to expand the Abraham accords. This is a singular moment in which peace is looking more likely than it has in decades. I can’t think of another time in the history of the state of Israel where a community outside the borders of Israel have asked to be annexed by the Jewish people. And yet this is exactly what we have seen, only this week with the southern Druze communities of Syria. Momentum is changing. It is certainly possible that peace and prosperity could follow. It is likely that chaos will remain within the borders of Syria for a long time to come - but the the likelihood is that this chaos will not threaten Israel, particularly since Israel have destroyed Syria’s weapons.
Finally, we watch with anticipation to see how the fall of the Assad regime will affect Russian influence in Syria. It seems possible that while their influence might be reduced, they may hold on to their naval bases on the Mediterranean. We learn from Daniel 11 that the King of North will occupy the territory of the ancient Seleucid Empire. This includes the territory of Turkey and Syria. However, we don’t know whether the King of the North, or Gog, will occupy this territory prior to their invasion from the North as prophesied in Ezekiel 38. 

It will interesting to see over the coming months how the fall of the Assad regime will affect Russian forces in Syria.
We are living in momentous times. The events of the last couple of weeks will change the landscape of the Middle East for decades to come. There will come a day when there is “time no longer” and the Lord Jesus Christ will return. Now is the time for us to think about the "manner of persons that we ought to be, in all holy conversation and godliness, looking for and hasting unto the day of God” (2 Peter 3:1-12).
This has been Daniel Blackburn joining you for this week’s edition of Bible in the News.